Friday, December 31, 2010

IMF is too polite to say, but this bailout pushes us further into the red zone

This article from Colm McCarthy was published in the Irish Independent on the 19th of December 2010 and outlines conclusions on Ireland's financial rescue package, which he fears.
McCarthy reveals that The cost of the bank rescue and the onus on taxpayers means we have no chance to service our own debt. He outlines when our debt burden concludes that assuming that everything goes as planned, which never really happens in Ireland unless the IMF have planned for this, will be at the absolute limits of sustainability. He finds that in 2013 according to IMF predictions the ratio of debt to GDP will still raise questions about the sovereignty of Ireland. "There are significant risks to the programme that could affect Ireland's capacity to repay the Fund".
McCarthy continues on to say how the essential problem is that the Irish State has taken the liability for bank losses which has surpassed their initial fears. If the State could get itself off the hook with more of the bank bondholders, its ability to service its own debt, including debt to the IMF, would be enhanced writes McCarthy. The respected Canadian market analysts BCA noted "Ireland's sovereign debt risks would have abated if bondholders had been forced to take a haircut on their positions, because this would have given the government more resources to repay creditors”, which is also currently the case in Spain at the moment.
To conclude in reality the Government is proceeding with the programme of budgetary austerity and has succeeded in getting another Budget through. However McCarthy’s final pint seems to escape the people of Ireland, although this recession is driven by the financial crisis and the collapse of the housing bubble we are still unable to meet the everyday cost occurred by the state and this phrase has been coined as the “twin bubble”
The twin bubbles, in public spending and in bank credit, squeezed the traded sector badly, and the strong euro exchange rate did the rest. The result has been a serious and widespread loss of competitiveness across the traded sector, including agri-business, manufacturing, tourism and export services.

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