Monday, March 21, 2011

The impact of natural calamities on global economy


It is obvious that the impact of bad weather and natural calamities on economy, especially in the age of globalization, the regional calamities can influence the other countries and related industries. From 1970s to 1980s, the various global natural calamities caused the economic losses more than hundred billions.

In Dec 2009, temperature of the US was the lowest level since 2000. As the consumption in heating grew significantly, the energy price was rising, oil price increased 10% and natural price increased 15%. In Jan 2011, the Eastern Australia occurred the most serious floods during the 50 years, the torrential rain inflict devastating damage to the region of producing coking coal which support two thirds of the world.

Hurricane Katrina, that hit New Orleans in August 2005, around 400,000 jobs were lost, economic growth for the second half of the year was trimmed by a full percentage and oil supplies were severely affected. On the day Hurrican Katrina hit Louisiana, August 29th 2005, crude oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $67.20 a barrel, up 1.6 percent, after touching a high of $70.80 a barrel in earlier electronic trading.”
— Jessica Hartogs and Antonia Oprita,CNBC

The biggest earthquake on record to hit Japan in 140 years sent stock markets across the globe sharply lower, while the yen and oil prices also fell. The quake was followed closely by a 10-metre tsunami that killed hundreds of people and swept away everything in its path. The death toll is expected to rise. Auto plants, electronics factories and oil refineries were shut across large parts of the country. Several airports, including Tokyo's Narita, were closed and rail services halted. All of the country's ports were closed.”
— Jessica Hartogs and Antonia Oprita, CNBC

Such of these natural calamities are influencing the global economy.

The events in Japan over the last few days are showing us how it influences the other countries’ economy. Firstly, Japan’s nuclear power plant issue increase the other countries’ fear for nuclear power, if some countries close their nuclear power plant, the other energy price(including petroleum) will sharp rise, and then involve the global economic trend. Specially for Asia, Japan‘s 54% export and 45% import are related to Asia, and 19% export and 22% import are for China. Japan’s import and export are stagnated after calamity, this will bring negative effect to Asia’s economy. Secondly, Japan’s economy highly depend on foreign countries, especially the large export of IT and cars, meanwhile large amounts of imports, so Japan’s calamity can negatively affect global economy in a short term. For instance, the crops and fishes cannot be eaten as the nuclear radiation, hence Japan has to import vast amounts of these products which did not need to import before.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42075689/Busch_Natural_Disaster_in_Japan_Follows_Historical_Pattern

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42026484/How_Recent_Disasters_Affected_Markets_and_Economies

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