Monday, January 31, 2011

Is the world too dependent on the Chinese economy?

This is a question that be discussed on the Economist web, the whole question is
China's economy may account for up to a fourth of global growth in 2010. What are the risks to dependency on a single country's economic performance, and what, if anything, should the world do to reduce this dependence?"
"The problem with China and its relationship to the global economy is largely tied to its traded goods sector. Excess capacity there imparts a deflationary bias on the global economy. China's policy of intervening to prevent currency appreciation that would adversely impact its traded goods sector enhances that deflationary bias and risks igniting a US-initiated trade war." John Makin gave his opinion of this question, he said the Chinese trade sector is too big.

However, there are some people do not think the world too dependent on the Chinese economy, like Yang Yao said, "China is not the most trade-dependent country in the world; among the large countries, Germany is more dependent on trade than China is." Micheal Pettis said, " Over the next few years if China can rebalance its economy, and reduce its trade surplus, it will contribute real growth and employment to the rest of the world. For now, however, it is hard to argue that the global economy depends too much on China’s economic growth."

in my opinion, China is becoming one of the world largest economy, however, there are many problem into its development. Chinese fast economic growth rely to its cheaper labour cost not the development of the productivity. The structural of the Chinese economy is bigger and still development but the level of productivity is still low. So the fast growth of Chinese economy can't keep long-time. There are also problem between the market economy system and the high government power. High government power is one factor that slow down the development of Chinese the market economic. The huge number of the population, Wen Jiabao has been said, a small question multiply 1.3 billion is a big question, a big problem divided by 1.3 billion is a small problem. China has the 1/5 of the world population. From this side, it is the biggest country in the world, however, the big amount of the population is also a big problem in the development. From all of these, China is one of the most important economy system in the world but the world economy is not dependent on the Chinese economy.

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